Rush to put Zverev in Alcaraz-Sinner tier premature despite twin titles

When the latest edition of the ATP singles rankings dropped earlier this week, a 24-year streak came to an end.

After being bounced in the first round of the US Open, Novak Djokovic dropped out of the top-10 for the first time since 2018.

Djokovic's exit marks the first time since October 2002 that neither he nor Rafael Nadal nor Roger Federer is inside the top-10.

For tennis fans who wondered when the 'Big 3' era in the men's game would end, the end is now.

With the Djokovic-Federer-Nadal triumvirate dominating the men's game for so long, the question of who their successors would be has been a popular one around tennis.

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have emulated Federer and Nadal's rivalry from the mid-2000s, exchanging grand slam titles while playing some spellbinding epics along the way, but would any other men's players on tour join them as Djokovic joined Federer and Nadal?

Alexander Zverev appears to be the third member of the party, having claimed two of the four available grand slam titles this year.

But questions remain as to whether Zverev's candidacy to join the very top tier of men's tennis is legitimate.

Since first achieving a top-10 ranking in May 2017 as a 20-year-old, Zverev has been one of the most consistent performers on the men's tour.

Zverev has spent 414 weeks as a top-10 ranked player throughout his career, currently 15th all-time. He ranks second among active players in this metric, behind only Djokovic, with 959 weeks, just behind Federer's 968.

At the time of writing, Zverev has spent 102 consecutive weeks ranked inside the top 10 since his most recent streak began in September 2023.

Those numbers are not the problem when it comes to Zverev's bid to be considered the best player in the world.

It is this one.

Despite being a constant presence in the top-10 rankings over the best part of the last decade, Zverev has consistently struggled to beat the other players ranked in the same vicinity.

The German owns an unenviable 5-18 (21.7 per cent) win-loss record against fellow top-10 opponents in grand slam matches. He has won 59 of his 146 matches against top-10 opponents overall, roughly a 40 per cent conversion rate.

Zverev's record pales in comparison to Alcaraz and Sinner, as well as Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.

Alcaraz has an astounding 16-7 record against top-10 opponents at grand slams, with his 69.6 per cent conversion rate by far the best among the elite cohort, while Sinner has gone 14-14 in such matches.

Nadal, Djokovic and Federer all won over 60 per cent of their matches against top-10 opponents at grand slams, with Djokovic's 69 wins leading the way.

This record against the very best players helped make Zverev a perennial grand slam semifinalist and finalist before he broke through with his first title at Roland-Garros earlier this year.

While Zverev now has two grand slam titles to his name, the calibre of opponents he has overcome suggests he hasn't really gone up a tier.

The German claimed the French Open title without facing a single top-10-ranked opponent, with the runner-up Flavio Cobolli the top-ranked player at No.14.

Overall, the average ranking of the players Zverev beat en-route to his first grand slam title is 57.7, with his fourth-round opponent, world No.106, Jesper de Jong the lowest-ranked.

Zverev had a slightly tougher run to the US Open title, but still faced just one top-10-ranked opponent in finalist Ben Shelton (eighth).

On average, Zverev's US Open opponents ranked 45th overall, with his first-round opponent, Lorenzo Sonego, the lowest-ranked at No.89.

Zverev's victories offer hope for the rest of the non-Alcaraz and Sinner division on the men's tour, including players such as Australia's Alex de Minaur.

De Minaur, like Zverev, has struggled against top-10 opponents at grand slams, winning just two of 14 matches.

Despite reaching a career-high ranking of No.5 this year, de Minaur has yet to win a grand slam quarterfinal.

The Australian has a 0-7 record in quarters, with six of those losses coming over the last three seasons.

De Minaur has looked downtrodden after his recent grand slam exits, but will hope that like Zverev, he too can capitalise on the bracket breaking just right for him at some point down the line.

For now, Zverev looks to have graduated above the class featuring the likes of Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, de Minaur and others.

But for him to truly climb into the upper echelon of men's tennis, it is time he starts taking down the big names when it matters most.