'Investors freaking out' about Wall Street big tech as warning bell rings

In short:

The cost of insuring against a debt default of Wall Street's tech titans has hit record levels.

The cost of insuring against a debt default of neocloud company CoreWeave is among the highest on the market.

What's next?

Analysts view the firm as the "canary in the coalmine" for the artificial investment boom more broadly.

The cost of insuring against a big technology firm defaulting on its debt has soared to record highs.

They are known as credit default swaps (CDS).

Heavily indebted data centre operator CoreWeave has been among the hardest hit.

Investors who have lent the company money are now paying a lot to buy these credit default swaps to insure against their debt investments becoming worthless.

The so-called neocloud company has taken on more than $US50 billion ($72 billion) in debt.

The yield on CoreWeave bonds set to mature in 2031 has hit 15.78 per cent.

This week, the spread on its five-year credit default swaps soared 16 per cent to a record 1.14 per cent, before easing slightly to 1.03 per cent.

Floodlines Research founder Anna Wu said the record highs in tech (credit default swaps) CDS were an extension of CoreWeave's spreads blowing past 1 per cent.

"[It] has revived worries about how the AI build-out is being financed," Ms Wu said.

Turning to private credit

Wall Street's big tech firms are increasing turning to debt and private credit financing, having exhausted options to raise money in the share market.

But elevated global inflation is putting upwards pressure on interest rates, which is increasing the cost of this debt.

Competition for debt from governments and other big tech firms is also increasing interest rates, and the cost of servicing this debt.

Investors are growing increasing concerned the cost of the debt is growing too much for the big tech firms to service, and they are taking out insurance to prevent harmful financial loss.

Ms Wu conceded financial markets were growing more anxious about the financial health of these mammoth companies.

"Nvidia's Jensen Huang defended CoreWeave in Stockholm yesterday, saying its cost of capital is falling and it needs no Nvidia backstop, but I think investor sentiment on tech is fragile after the chip sell-off, so this is more sentiment than fundamentals for now," she said.

Elsewhere in the market cloud computing giant Oracle has seen its credit default swaps rise 0.3 per cent this week, while costs to insure against debt defaults for Nvidia, STMicroelectronics and SpaceX also rose sharply.

Credit default swap spreads for Amazon, Alphabet and Meta also traded at record highs, data from LSEG and S&P Global Market Intelligence showed, though they have risen far more slowly than Oracle, or CoreWeave.

"This is not the first time we've had a sizeable market wobble on the back of AI fears, but as we move to a capex cycle funded out of debt rather than simply free cash flow, we have to increasingly respect the credit price action," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

"AI financing costs aren't dramatic overall, but there are worrying themes at the edges."

Canary in the coalmine

Marcus Today senior markets analyst Henry Jennings described CoreWeave as the "canary in the coalmine" for excessive Wall Street big tech debt.

"[CoreWeave's credit default swaps show there is a] 60 per cent chance of default within five years," Mr Jennings said.

"Jensen Huang was quick to defend CoreWeave but then again, he is an investor and supplier to the company.

"Investors are freaking out on the cost of debt for wannabes," he said.

XTB research director Kathleen Brooks agreed.

"Its bonds have sold off sharply … this is a sign that investors might be going off the AI investment narrative, which has included massive debt issuance to fund AI ambitions."

ABC/Reuters