Why China’s sugar stockpiles may blunt an El Nino-fuelled global supply crunch
The major sugar importer is expected to lean on strong domestic supplies amid soaring international prices
China is expected to slow sugar imports for the rest of the year as concerns grow over a global supply crunch and higher prices, with Thailand – the world’s second-largest exporter – facing a sharp drop in production.
The forecasts follow a steady rise in global sugar prices over the past month amid persistent supply concerns.
Niu Zhe, an analyst at bulk commodity consultancy Sublime China Information, noted that China’s import policy for the sweetener had already shown signs of tightening during the 2025 to 2026 crushing season.
“With domestic production expected to remain strong in the 2026 to 2027 season and the cost of importing raw sugar from Brazil and Thailand continuing to rise, the out-of-quota import window has completely closed, and the pace of imports is likely to slow markedly in the second half of the year,” he said.
China applies a 15 per cent tariff on sugar imports up to 1.945 million tonnes, with a steeper 50 per cent duty on any volume above that threshold.
