Political polls, center-right below 41%. With the "Melonellum" the broad coalition would win at 43.8%

The centre-right continues to lose ground in the polls. According to YouTrend's Supermedia this week, the majority parties have fallen to 40.7%: for the first time in this parliamentary term, they are below 41%. If, on the other hand, one adds up the figures for the PD, M5S, AVS, IV and +Europa, the opposition parties reach 43.9%. This is the difference between victory and defeat under the new electoral law. The so-called Melonellum grants a massive bonus of 70 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate to the coalition that comes first, provided it clears the 42% threshold in both houses. If no coalition surpasses that threshold, seats are distributed on a purely proportional basis.

Among the parties, Futuro Nazionale (now at 7.7%), AVS (6.4%) and the PD (21.1%) are all up, albeit by just 0.1%. The positive sign is particularly significant for M5S, which is grappling with Nova, its grassroots consultation process. Giuseppe Conte's party gains a solid 0.4%.

The political forces supporting the government are either losing ground or holding steady: Fratelli d'Italia stands at 26.6% (down 0.3%), Forza Italia at 7.4% (down 0.2%), and Lega unchanged at 5.6% compared to last week. Among the smaller parties, the Supermedia records Azione at 3.3% (down 0.4%), Italia Viva at 2.3% (down 0.1%), +Europa at 1.5% (up 0.1%) and Noi Moderati at 1.1% (up 0.1%).

The YouTrend/AGI Supermedia is a weighted average of national voting intention polls. This week's weighting includes surveys conducted between 2 and 16 September and was calculated on 17 September on the basis of sample size, fieldwork date and data collection method. The polls considered were carried out by the following institutes: EMG (publication date: 10 September), Ixé (10 September), Noto (8 September), Only Numbers (4, 11 and 15 September), Piepoli (11 September), SWG (7 and 14 September), Tecnè (7 and 9 September) and YouTrend (4 September).