Luis Caputo's secrets, the Budget's outline, and the Pope's visit

The meetings have been repeated in recent weeks and the central topic has been singular: when will the economic program trickle down to working-class sectors?

The matter has been discussed at no fewer than the last three meetings of the "political roundtable." But there were other smaller and more candid meetings among ministers.

The one always being questioned was Luis Caputo. The economy's "rockstar" — according to Milei — habitually asks for patience and repeats: "Hang in there."

In the last 10 days there was another intimate meeting, where Toto opened up and shared several truths. In attendance were — at least — Karina, and the "karinos" Lule Menem and Diego Santilli.

The trio is distressed by the drop in polls and the regional reports from their prospective candidates. Yesterday INDEC delivered bad news.

The fear stems from the following: even in strongly pro-Milei districts, support for Milei has been declining. Examples: Córdoba, Mar del Plata and San Isidro.

Toto was candid in the private meetings. He first stated that the fiscal outlook is delicate and admitted he is making "Herculean efforts" to sustain the surplus.

The minister reportedly admitted that he had to resort to a "little assist" from Horacio Marín: YPF is advancing the transfer of future tax payments to help balance the Treasury's accounts. A kind of "accounting magic."

Also — to his interlocutors' relief — he affirmed that even under that severe constraint he was willing to take measures to revive the economy.

But he said that all such initiatives had one drawback: President Milei does not want to touch anything in the orthodox model.

Toto asked Karina to "intercede" with the President. To "soften him up" to smooth the way for future decisions. Because stimulus measures would carry an "inflationary cost." Toto called for political agreements: demonstrating governability to face potential market turbulence.

Toto continues to push for an agreement with PRO and allied governors. Santilli has made little headway, because his interlocutors distrust his promises.

Toto's arguments were similar to those he put forward — at the end of July — at a meeting with Argentina's most prominent bankers. The leak of those remarks provoked Milei's fury.

Among bankers it is widely known that the relationship between the Milei siblings is going through turbulence. The issue has generated skirmishes at the top of the power structure.

The concern over "trickle-down" also involves Santiago Caputo. On that point, El Pibe has no differences with Karina.

The draft Budget is — to say the least — controversial: it establishes cuts to longstanding Milei banners that already failed in Parliament.

Yesterday Patricia Bullrich raised the alarm over the sweeping cuts to disability services. She distanced herself from the Casa Rosada.

The inflation target is double the one projected for 2026 — 10% — and is far below the actual rate of 33%. It will be difficult to meet and falls far short of the 0% monthly inflation Milei desires.

Thus, Milei will have to call off the celebration concert. But the main "creative accounting" lies in fiscal revenues: the budget projects a sharp 30.6% increase in tax collection, incompatible with the meager level of activity. Yesterday INDEC released negative data.

In short: the revenue foregone through incentives to large multinationals (RIGI) is being covered by revenue extracted from sectors in recession, along with cuts to universities, people with disabilities and social assistance.

In meetings among top business figures, all of this is being discussed. With an eye on 2027.

A sort of "green circle" has emerged, made up of those who have benefited from decisions made at the Casa Rosada. They call themselves the "green circle," in contrast to the "red circle." The "green circle" is doing very well in its business dealings with the State.

This "green circle" unconditionally endorses Milei's reelection. Among its prominent members are José Luis Manzano, brothers Juan and Patricio Neuss, and Mauricio Filiberto. They have an excellent relationship with Santi Caputo and have been winners in recent Casa Rosada tenders.

The case of Manzano is striking: he is a liberal in Argentina and a socialist in Spain.

This is how "Argentina Week Paris" is being prepared. The matter has generated clashes within the Government itself and conflicts among holding companies. Many corporate heavyweights do not want to attend: the program is very basic, and Milei only promises to appear at an awards ceremony to speak about the global economy. Caputo, something similar. There would be nothing to do except applaud.

On top of that, several business owners recall the unpleasant experience in Manhattan: Milei—this was in March—devoted his speech to attacking Manuel Madanes and Paolo Rocca instead of attracting U.S. investors. That was a breaking point with the "red circle."

There is also fierce internal conflict within the Government. Pablo Quirno is clashing with Diego Sucalesca, head of PromArgentina, the Investment Agency. Karina appointed Sucalesca to lead the event. He is another "karino." The Foreign Ministry is furious and is boycotting Sucalesca.

This has already caused a short circuit with the ambassador in France. Ian Sielecki wanted to organize a roundtable on "Argentine pharmaceutical laboratories," and the head of PromArgentina is blocking it from happening.

So far, few "owners" have signed up. The large companies want to comply and are sending their executives to the event.

The matter was discussed in the influential Group of Six. Gustavo Weiss said the Government should extend invitations before deciding to travel to Paris.

Martín Rappallini—who had an uncomfortable experience at Argentina Week in Manhattan—suggested traveling "even without an invitation" in order to please the Casa Rosada.

Rappallini is facing a tough internal dispute within the UIA. Sucalesca has already caused a major stir at COPAL. He wants the local food multinationals to persuade their international CEOs to attend in support of Milei.

The issue sparked a heated debate at COPAL. Martín Cabrales tried to settle the matter: "I have a home in Paris, I could attend."

In the end, it appears the delegation will be led by the influential Carla Martín Bonito, the head of the business community. The international CEOs remain undecided.

Daniel Funes de Rioja, the former head of COPAL, was at the Vatican. It was a meeting where something unusual occurred: Alejandro "Peluca" Gramajo, from the Movimiento Evita, handed Pope Leo XIV—during the greeting portion of the event—a critical social report on Argentina.

In Buenos Aires, there is feverish labor-business activity related to the Supreme Pontiff's visit. Last Tuesday, a closed-door meeting was convened by Monsignor Jorge García Cuerva. His interlocutors were Jorge Sola and Osvaldo Cornide. Both are coordinating the drafting of a joint labor-business document to be presented to the Pope at the UCA.

The text is expected to be critical of the state of the economy and the social situation in Argentina. García Cuerva requested that the document be endorsed by social movements. The document is in line with the social positions of Leo XIV. It would also address the international situation.

Next week the Malvinas issue will be on the agenda at the UN. Milei could meet with Donald Trump.

Milei's new nationalist stance will have a harmful side effect: it could affect the chances of Rafael Grossi being elected as head of the UN.

This coming week, the Security Council members with veto power will evaluate the candidates.

Among those five powerful nations, there is a key one: none other than Great Britain.