Queenslanders brace for hot, dry spring but hope for wet summer

In short:

Forecasting shows warmer-than-average temperatures through winter will lead to dry conditions for much of Queensland in the first months of spring.

The grain harvest is expected to take a hit from reduced yields and planting.

What's next?

Rural Fire Service Queensland says the conditions suggest a more active bushfire season than previous years.

Bushfire conditions have taken hold in Queensland after a warm, dry winter put pressure on farmers' plantings.

The state has just experienced its third-warmest winter, as the El Niño continues to strengthen into what could be the strongest ever.

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Hugh McDowell said winter temperatures across Queensland were 1.8 degrees Celsius above average and the unusually warm temperatures would continue across most of the state.

Farmers are nervously anticipating further drought declarations due to the hot, dry conditions but remain hopeful for a better summer season.

'All our El Niños are different'

The El Niño began developing over the winter months, but there was an element of tropical moisture spreading across the state, which saw rainfall in large parts of Western Queensland while eastern parts remained drier.

"Traditionally you wouldn't associate that with an El Niño winter," Mr McDowell said.

"All our El Niños are different, and they are kind of open to climate and weather chaos as well."

Most of the state had a high chance of drier-than-average conditions through September and October, while the north tropical coast and eastern peninsula could see more showers than usual.

In Western Queensland, the first significant rains of the wet season were expected to come earlier than usual.

"As we start getting into November, December, there's actually an increased signal for above-medium rainfall spreading from western parts of the state," Mr McDowell said.

The forecast indicates that it will then move across most of the state.

Authorities prepare for increased bushfires

Rural Fire Service Queensland is expecting higher fire activity compared to previous years, particularly in the southern interior due to hot, dry conditions.

Specialist services assistant chief officer Mark Doble said crews had been busy, already battling blazes across the state from the Far North, through central Queensland and in the state's south.

"There are areas that are drying out very quickly as we move into spring," he said.

"What we saw earlier in the year was some unseasonal rainfall … which did promote a lot of fuel growth through the state."

Mr Doble said a few fires had started in recent days due to "hot works".

"Welding or using grinders can obviously be an ignition source," he said.

Mr Doble urged people to stop and consider before undertaking that work.

"Think about if it's the right time of the day to be doing it. What are the conditions around me?" he said.

"Now is a great opportunity, if you live in a bushfire-prone area, to make sure that you review your bushfire survival plan."

Hopeful for summer

During winter, growers not only faced warmer, drier conditions but tough economic times too.

AgForce grains president Brendan Taylor said uncertainty around fuel and fertiliser prices and supply led to some choosing to plant less.

"The winter crop that's gone in here has been combined with very, very high inputs as well, with very expensive nutrition such as urea and very high fuel prices at the time," he said.

The reduced planting and lower yields were forecast to put overall Queensland production at 2.2 million tonnes, 44 per cent lower than last year.

That is 11 per cent below the 10-year average, according to the ABARES September crop report.

Mr Taylor said even with a smaller crop, prices were on the rise, and there was optimism for a better summer.

"Any of the grain that comes off is going to be valuable," he said.

"It won't surprise me if we see some more shires added to the drought-declared list in the coming months unless Mother Nature turns the tap on.

"Hopefully, we get some good summer rain or spring rain in the next month or so, and that'll stimulate a summer plant in some areas."