Lions' shock loss to Swans was about more than complacency

Fri, 28 Aug, 7:40 pm, Final score, Bulldogs 96, Magpies 93

Sat, 29 Aug, 7:35 pm, Final score, Demons 55, Blues 74

55 74 →Thu, 3 Sept, 8:10 pm, Final score, Dockers 40, Hawks 72

40 72 →Fri, 4 Sept, 7:40 pm, Final score, Cats 107, Blues 74

107 74 →Sat, 5 Sept, 3:15 pm, Final score, Swans 141, Lions 88

141 88 →Sat, 5 Sept, 7:35 pm, Final score, Crows 90, Bulldogs 68

90 68 →Fri, 11 Sept, 8:10 pm, Final score, Dockers 120, Cats 106

120 106 →Sat, 12 Sept, 7:35 pm, Game not started, Lions versus Crows

- - →Sat, 26 Sept, 2:30 pm, Game not started, Winner of PF1 versus Winner of PF2

- - →

Few pundits gave the Sydney Swans a chance of defeating the Brisbane Lions in last Saturday's qualifying final at the SCG.

Now the Swans have a week off and the Lions are one step away from a summer holiday.

The official line from the Lions after the game was one of complacency and players not taking the Swans seriously.

"I tried very hard this week to convince our players it was going to be a tough game," coach Chris Fagan told reporters after the match.

"We're going to the SCG. It's Sydney's home ground.

"But somewhere back in the deep recesses of their mind, I just wonder whether they really thought it was going to be as hard as what it was."

A lack of effort and complacency were quickly mentioned as scapegoats for the Lions' loss, while the Swans' resilient spirit was credited for the victory.

While complacency may have played a role, the indications are that the issues may sit a little bit deeper.

For the past half a decade, it has become routine for the Lions to hang cricket scores on opponents. The AFL's most effective and efficient attack has almost lulled the league itself into a sense of complacency.

But when Fagan started his rebuild at the Lions, the priority was the defensive end. Fagan saw that building their intercept marking ability and run out of defence was critical to how he saw the Lions being successful.

When you combine a dominant forward line with a dynamic back line, magic is likely.

With three straight grand finals and two premierships on the trot, few would argue against that recipe.

But over time the pure defensive side has slowly been de-prioritised to beef up their attacking focus. Against Sydney, it was possibly the biggest factor in the loss.

This Lions' season has hinted at a couple of issues not seen in previous years.

A run of injuries has forced a shuffle in defence. Against most teams it has been enough, but against the best attacks they have been found wanting.

The Lions' title defence — and their bid for a premiership three-peat — might just come apart at the hands of their own defence.

You can't stop the Lions

From sides who cleared out the forward line to those who won it in the guts, from defensive powerhouses to those who overwhelmed with speed, each side that sits atop the mountain for an extended period tends to shape the game.

For the Lions, the recipe to their success has largely been one of control and ruthless efficiency.

For each of their grand final years, they have been in the top two for clearance differential. Once they win the ball, they tend to sit near the top for uncontested marks as well, which is a measure of how well they move the ball around the ground.

Once they move it to their forward line, the Lions just know how to score. Even as the personnel in the forward line have changed, the offensive result has stayed the same.

A big part of their success comes in transition: how they attack you from the back. Their kick-mark style picks teams apart as they can alternate going slow and moving quick.

Quite simply, the Lions win because they score more, instead of preventing scoring.

Lions can't stop you

Every tactic on the footy field has a cost.

For example, a team that focuses on locking down their defensive 50 will make the Faustian bargain to hinder their transition game. Teams who press up the ground can often be beaten out the back by quicker sides.

There is always a pull when you push. The best teams look to balance this as much as possible, to maximise strengths while making the weaknesses livable. This was nearly the measure of success for their defensive set-up.

The Lions regularly feature as one of the best teams at transitioning the ball from defence to attack, and sat around the league average for defending opposition forays inside 50.

They could live with this relative weakness due to the strength in their clearance game, gaining free territory as a result, and their ability to turn defence into attack when they did stop the opposition.

But there is a limit to how much you can bend in defence before things become broken. In their 2023 season, the Lions conceded 100 points just three times, while in the last two premiership seasons they have done so just four times apiece.

This year they have already conceded tons nine times, with eight of these becoming losses.

Due to injuries, age and a general lack of continuity, the Lions defence may have erred past the fatal line, particularly against good teams.

A big part of this story centres around availability. The Lions have struggled to keep their core defensive unit on the park.

In 2025, five of their defenders missed one game between them, allowing them to keep their heads above water as a team.

This year, only Jaspa Fletcher and Darcy Wilmot have played every game. Dayne Zorko, Darcy Gardiner and Ryan Lester all missed game time, Jack Payne has not returned from a knee injury last year and Brandon Starcevich is no longer at the club.

Makeshift or developing options like Ty Gallop, Zane Zakostelsky and Darragh Joyce have seen more game time than anticipated.

Things got so sparse that even key forward Eric Hipwood was deployed down back in his return from injury.

"Our squad depth has been tested all year," Fagan said after their loss to Carlton on the eve of finals.

"We've had up to 15 or 16 players out at different times."

The degree of discontinuity has increased and availability has waned through the year. The churn has caused the Lions to crack against the best attacks.

This year the Lions have slipped even more when defending inside 50. Good teams have regularly got hold of the defence, making the most of chances up forward.

The Lions particularly struggle against sides that transition the ball most effectively.

Brisbane concedes more points from the back half than any other finalist. They have a 4-6 (win-loss) record against top defensive-half scoring teams, and have won 12 of 14 games against the rest of the league.

This is not solely a matter of losing to other top sides, either.

Defending the whole field has been an issue for the two-time premiers, but it is nothing compared to what happens when the ball hits the deck inside 50.

Controlling the bouncing ball

While well-set for intercept marks through the likes of Harris Andrews, the Lions' aerial threats have often floundered off spoils and packs, and against dirty bouncing ball.

The Lions take the highest percentage of their intercepts via marks of any team in the league. That is directly in line with Fagan's vision from 2019.

But this keenness to fly for marks means they often face issues when trying to control the ball when it hits the deck inside their defensive 50.

The Lions are the worst side in the league at defending ground balls away from stoppage inside their defensive 50.

Too often they let small forwards and midfielders do damage when it hits the deck. Some of Brisbane's most disappointing performances — such as last week — have occurred in broken attacking play.

Part of this is down to how the Lions are positioned to counter-attack when they end up winning the ball and the attacking nature of their defenders.

The Lions do not boast the small shutdown defenders of other sides, and perhaps lack an option to counter players like Tom Papley.

These issues also often cascade to tall forwards being able to find their way against an adjusting defence.

Overcoming adversity

But if there is a hallmark of the Lions' run at the top, it is that they are almost compelled to succeed against adversity.

Each of their recent premierships came after playing the maximum number of finals. And both championship runs led to serious questions.

"We've got work to do, but we've been in this position before. We were in exactly the same position last year," Fagan said.

"The only way we can do it now is the hard way. We have no other choice."

That hard way starts off against an Adelaide side buzzing from their first finals win in a decade.

On paper, the Crows present several threats, with a potent attack once the ball reaches their forward 50, a miserly defence and Izak Rankine making their midfield more dynamic.

But as talented as the Crows are, they are not the perfect storm Brisbane encountered last week.

Sydney had almost the ideal weapons to counter the Lions' increasingly shaky defence, and their midfield set-up was hard to plan for because the banning of five key players created uncertainty.

This will not be the case this weekend.

The Crows do not have the kind of transition game that has troubled the Lions this year and which the Swans brought at the SCG.

They certainly don't have the same ability to win dead balls on a week-to-week basis, as the Swans demonstrated, either.

Nonetheless, Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks was watching last week's game at the SCG intently.

"That was as good as you've seen from an intensity and energy point of view, the way they pressured Brisbane," Nicks said during the week.

"They were extremely direct with the footy and they changed their game from what we'd seen throughout the year."

For Brisbane, the equation remains the same as it has for the past three seasons. They need to win enough possession at clearances and score heavily enough to allow their defence to counterattack.

Except this time the margin for error is far slimmer.

Time will tell if this recipe can hold for three more games.