Government alert in a survey targeting the "Red Circle": drop to the level of its worst electoral moment

The Government Confidence Index (ICG), compiled by Torcuato Di Tella University, stood at 1.94 points this July, representing a 6.5% drop compared to June. The survey, closely watched by the so-called Círculo Rojo due to its general correspondence with electoral results, came in 3.9% lower than Mauricio Macri's figure at the same point in his administration (month 31), and 73.3% higher than Alberto Fernández's in July 2022. In what may be the most worrying figure for Javier Milei, the current confidence level is at the same level as last September, at the time of the resounding defeat to Peronism in the province of Buenos Aires.

The Confidence Index has been measured since November 2001 based on a survey — in this case, conducted during the first half of July — on a scale of 0 to 5. In year-on-year terms, the drop was 21%. This month saw a resumption of the downward trend in 2026, with June having been the only exception. Previous declines had been 2.8% in January, 0.6% in February, 3.5% in March, 12.1% in April, and 1.6% in May. June had seen a recovery of 3.9%.

Four of the five components of the ICG decreased compared to the previous month. Capacity fell 7.3%, efficiency 15.4%, overall evaluation 2.5%, and concern for the general interest 6.9%. Honesty remained at a similar level (-0.4%). The average for the Milei presidency fell to 2.37 points, its lowest recorded level. Even so, the report notes that the ICG during the current administration remains at levels comparable to those of Macri and somewhat below those of Néstor Kirchner during his first two and a half years in office.

The survey represents a warning signal for the Casa Rosada, coinciding with the launch of the plan for Milei's reelection. The ruling party aims to take advantage of the fragmentation and internal disputes within opposition groups and achieve a first-round victory, with more than 45% of the vote or more than 40% with a 10-point gap over rivals, in order to avoid the risk of defeat in a potential runoff.

Another figure highlighted by Di Tella University is that the gender gap narrowed in July to 0.36 points, the result of a significant decrease in the ICG among men to 2.10 points (-11.3%). The figure among women came in at 1.74 points (+2.8%).

Regarding the breakdown by age, the largest drop was recorded among people aged 18 to 29 (1.68, -23%), followed by those over 50 (2.07; -7.1%) and those between 30 and 49 (1.75; -0.7%). By geographic area, the lowest level and the steepest decline occurred in Greater Buenos Aires (1.63; -10.9%), followed by the City of Buenos Aires (1.92; -5.6%) and the interior of the country (2.09; -4.7%).