Indigenous chief Wagner Karipuna gazes with concern at the river running through his village in the Amazon rainforest in the far north of Brazil: he fears an "immense disaster" in the event of an oil spill.
His village of Mangá lies about 20 kilometers from the center of Oiapoque, a border town with French Guiana that has been buzzing with activity since oil giant Petrobras began offshore exploration there a year ago.
The excitement grew after the Brazilian state oil company announced in August that it had identified the presence of hydrocarbons in its first well, located 175 km from the coast. Not far from there, Guyana and Suriname have been tapping vast reserves for years.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking re-election in October, immediately traveled to the site and hailed the oil as a "passport to the future."
To reach Oiapoque, one must travel some 600 km from Macapá, the capital of Amapá state, part of the journey along a red dirt track with wooden bridges.
Many streets lack sidewalks and are lined with low-rise buildings with often deteriorating facades.
"Disappointment" with Lula da Silva
While many residents of Oiapoque are enthusiastic about the prospect of economic benefits, Wagner Karipuna is worried.
"If a spill were to occur, it would certainly affect us. Water has no borders," says the 57-year-old chief.
He imagines the nightmare: oil slicks carried by the tide into the Curipi River, which flows past his village of 1,800 inhabitants.
Petrobras states that its analyses "do not indicate the likelihood" of oil "reaching the coastline in the event of a spill."
"There is no offshore exploration with zero risk," Jean Paul Prates, who led the company between 2023 and 2024, told AFP, however.
"It is a low-probability risk, but one with potentially high consequences," he argues.
Wagner Karipuna says he feels "disappointed" by Lula, who presents himself as a defender of the environment and indigenous peoples.
For the current center-left president, oil revenues will help finance the energy transition.
The chief says that "the impact is already being felt," referring to the "noise of helicopters and planes every day," which drives away wildlife.
His concerns are shared by Joelso Mendonça, vice president of a group of around 400 traditional fishermen in the region.
"If there is a spill, nobody is going to want to buy fish from an area affected by oil," fears this 50-year-old man, who mends his net in a stilted hut on the riverbank.
When contacted by AFP, Petrobras states that it has "maintained continuous dialogue" with civil society and indigenous communities.
Regarding air traffic, the company says it has made "adjustments" following meetings with indigenous leaders.
Opportunity
While for some the oil seems like a curse, for Jacqueline Cadete it is a "sign from God."
This 45-year-old evangelical pastor settled at the end of 2025 in one of Oiapoque's new neighborhoods.
She says she is drawn by "the opportunities" linked to oil, having spent a long time outside Brazil, in French Guiana and in France.
According to a study by the National Industry Observatory, more than 50,000 jobs could be created in Amapá.
And the royalties Petrobras will be required to pay to local authorities will represent a considerable sum.
The company's president, Magda Chambriard, announced in August, however, that production should not begin for "six or seven years."
Meanwhile, Mayor Inácio Monteiro Maciel describes himself as "very optimistic" about the future, though he admits he will have to "practically start everything from scratch" in terms of infrastructure and social policies.
More than half of the approximately 28,000 inhabitants counted in the 2022 census receive Bolsa Família, a subsidy aimed at the poorest families.
But the city has seen an influx of new residents in recent years, which "intensified" since Petrobras began its drilling, the mayor says.
According to his estimates, between 40,000 and 45,000 people already live in Oiapoque.
New Dubai?
The mayor also points to "real estate speculation" that is forcing many families to leave the city center and move to new outlying neighborhoods.
In a neighborhood called Nova Conquista, Thais Pereira de Souza, 32, lives in a tiny house with a tin roof, without water or electricity, together with her husband, her two children, and her pregnant daughter-in-law.
They are crammed into a room with two mattresses and two hammocks, after being unable to "keep paying rent" for their apartment in the city center.
She hopes that "life will improve" thanks to the oil.
Lilma Campos, president of the Oiapoque Commercial and Industrial Association (ACOI), anticipates a "radical change" but prefers to keep her feet on the ground.
"Just because they found oil, the idea is going around that this is going to be the new Dubai. We don't know if that is really going to happen."
Source: AFP
