By the numbers, the tide is finally starting to turn in Victoria's crime crisis.
Data released this week shows a 3.8 per cent per cent drop in the crime rate in the past year to June.
It suggests crime is at least beginning to plateau — but with a state election looming, the political crisis fuelled by the community's perception of safety shows little sign of easing.
The flattening numbers tell Victorians that statistically, they are safer than they were 12 months ago. Whether Victorians feel safer is a separate question, and a critical one for Premier Ben Carroll.
It was his predecessor Jacinta Allan who tightened bail laws and brought in life sentences for youths who commit deadly and serious crimes, as well as the handlers caught giving children criminal orders.
Like Allan, Carroll has had a significant focus on crime — with no shortage of recent examples to demonstrate why Victorians are demanding effective solutions.
On the very day he vowed to allow police to search people for weapons anywhere anytime if re-elected, an 18-year-old girl was allegedly stabbed repeatedly with a store-bought kitchen knife during a brawl in Melbourne's west.
Days later, three teenagers allegedly hit a female police officer with a stolen car, sending her several metres through the air in Ashwood.
On Monday, two teenagers and a young man were all stabbed during a botched marketplace meet-up in St Albans.
The ABC last week revealed police concerns about public transport hubs becoming knife caches for young offenders planning violent assaults while trying to dodge the statewide machete ban.
But the prevalence of weapons only accounts for part of Victorians' perceptions of their safety, or lack thereof.
Some alleged incidents have turned deadly without them.
A group of youths were allegedly involved in the fatal bashing of grocer Van Viet Truong metres outside his own shop in Sunshine last month.
His death sparked outrage among the community, who demanded a stronger police presence and support for at-risk youths.
A month after being struck by his own car when a woman allegedly stole it from his Heidelberg driveway, a 68-year-old man died from his injuries in hospital.
The almost 4 per cent drop in crime would be cold comfort for those families, whose loved ones were people, not numbers. They were husbands and fathers and loved by their communities.
As Police Minister Paul Edbrooke told reporters on Thursday: "We're heading in the right direction but every single one of these stats does represent an actual victim and an offender."
And by Edbrooke's own admission, there is still a long way to go to regain Victorians' faith in their government to keep them safe.
Home invasions, carjackings and robberies are down, but drug crime and retail theft are up.
Longer sentences follow tough-on-crime agenda
In the years since Victorian Labor swept to office in 2014, the pendulum of criminal policy has swung back and forth.
Former premier Jacinta Allan marked her time in the top job with a host of punitive reforms under a tough-on-crime agenda that contradicted her predecessor, Daniel Andrews.
She walked away from his plan to raise the age of criminal responsibility from 12 to 14 years old as community angst soared. A vicious knife fight at Northland shopping centre last year prompted her to outlaw machetes.
Her government imposed potential life sentences for children convicted of murder, car jackings and other violent crimes, as well as for adults caught recruiting children to commit crimes on their behalf.
Sentencing Advisory Council data released this week showed sentences for major crimes such as murder and rape had gotten longer.
Those punitive measures have drawn consistent criticism from human rights groups.
This week, the Victorian Ombudsman expressed alarm over the government's treatment of young criminals.
It found in 2025 that in one case, a child had been transferred to an adult prison and held in solitary confinement for 22 hours a day.
"I know many people will find it difficult to sympathise with a child who has been repeatedly violent towards youth justice staff," ombudsman Marlo Baragwanath said.
"But human rights apply to everyone, including people accused or convicted of a crime."
The government has also invested in policies on the rehabilitative side of the coin, pouring $40 million into a youth crime prevention program.
It's funded support for at-risk children and young offenders — but this week questions were raised over whether there was any evidence it was making an impact.
Victorians will soon pass their verdict
Tough-on-crime policies have traditionally been key campaign tools of the Victorian Coalition.
They were first to call for the same police powers, known as "Jack's Law", that Carroll announced.
They pushed a "break bail, face jail" line before Jacinta Allan tightened bail laws.
With a resurgent One Nation in the mix, Carroll will be hoping his own play on the tough-on-crime agenda will be enough to secure Labor's fourth consecutive term.
There were reports earlier this month that Labor was once again considering raising the age of criminal responsibility to 14 years old. Carroll is going against Allan's initial backflip on the issue, in the exact same way she had done to Andrews.
The premier has told Victorians he is nothing like either of them — and he can solve the problems that plagued his predecessors.
The results on November 28 will reveal whether they believe him.
