Gas cheaper, oil more expensive – heating costs set to rise in 2026 according to forecast
Heating costs for German households are set to rise again this year, according to a forecast. There are differences between individual heating types, as not all fuels are becoming more expensive.
Households in Germany must once again expect higher heating costs in the current year. This is shown by the new heating cost forecast from the consulting firm co2online. There are differences between individual heating types: "Heating oil and wood pellets in particular are likely to become significantly more expensive," according to the "Heizspiegel" (Heating Mirror) for 2026.
These differences are particularly evident in the following example calculation: The experts have calculated the expected heating costs for a 70-square-metre apartment in a multi-family building.
Against the backdrop of the Iran war, they forecast a 24 percent increase for heating oil to 1,275 euros. For wood pellets, they expect a rise of 17 percent in the current year to 870 euros in annual heating costs. co2online identifies the ongoing shortage of pellet raw materials as a result of weak construction activity as one of the main reasons.
Gas heating cheaper in 2026
Heating with natural gas is forecast to become cheaper, however: The experts expect a slight decline of four percent to 1,120 euros. "Due to low procurement costs at the start of the year and the elimination of the gas storage levy, heating costs could fall slightly on an annual average," the company explained its calculation.
However, recently rising wholesale prices could feed through to consumer prices with a delay and cause gas costs to rise again at the end of 2026 or during 2027, a spokesperson said.
For the other heating types examined, co2online also expects slight increases in the example calculation: For district heating by one percent to 1,310 euros and for heat pumps by three percent to 735 euros.
Heat pump likely to remain cheapest in the long term
"While individual energy prices fluctuate from year to year, the long-term trend points in a clear direction: heating with fossil fuels is expected to become increasingly expensive," the experts emphasise. This is shown above all by the long-term calculation, which was drawn up as an example for a 130-square-metre single-family home.
According to this, heating costs for gas and oil heating systems could more than double by 2045. The company identifies rising CO2 costs, higher grid fees and legally mandated blending requirements such as biomethane, hydrogen or bio-heating oil as causes, among others.
For district heating and wood pellets, a moderate increase in costs is to be expected over the next 20 years. "Fossil heating is more expensive in the long term and remains associated with greater cost risks than heating with renewable energies. Anyone planning a new heating system today should be aware of this development, even if the installation of pure gas and oil heating systems is once again permitted," said Tanja Loitz, Managing Director of co2online.
Significant savings potential for most households
At the same time, the company emphasises that many households could significantly reduce their heating costs. "Around 90 percent of all households still have savings potential," it said. On average, around 465 euros per year could be saved in an apartment, according to the experts.
Even simple behavioral changes such as proper heating and ventilation or reduced hot water consumption could cut energy usage by up to ten percent. "Even greater savings can be achieved through heating system optimization, insulation measures, or switching to renewable heating systems."
