Uncertain election outcome: When will things get how tight for the Chancellor?

Elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin: When Will Things Get Tight for the Chancellor?

In Berlin, the CDU has the Red City Hall at stake, while in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the Christian Democrats face the threat of a single-digit result. What consequences would this have for Chancellor Merz?

The CDU and the Chancellor are facing significant hours ahead: the election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in particular could inflict a historic defeat on the party. In the latest infratest dimap poll, the Christian Democrats stood at seven percent, and even failing to clear the five-percent threshold no longer seems out of the question. Yet in 80 years of the Federal Republic, a major party has never failed to enter a state parliament in an election.

But what are the starting positions in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? How much weight does the outcome in Berlin carry? And what consequences would this have for the federal government and Chancellor Friedrich Merz? Here are answers to the most important questions.

How serious is the situation for the CDU in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

The biggest problem for the Christian Democrats is the campaign that is heavily tailored to incumbent Manuela Schwesig. She campaigns on her name recognition and has even pushed the SPD logo into the background on election posters. AfD lead candidate Leif-Erik Holm is less popular in direct comparison. Yet his party led in polls for months by what seemed an insurmountable margin. Schwesig has, however, managed to close the gap in recent months. Some recent polls have even shown her in the lead.

She achieved this turnaround primarily through strong polarisation, along the lines of "me or them" — embodied in the campaign slogan: "The woman against Blue." This strategy came at the expense of all other parties in the centrist camp, and thus also at the expense of the CDU: in the latest infratest dimap polls, the party stood at seven percent — dangerously close to the five-percent threshold, especially given the statistical margin of error.

Even six, seven or eight percent would be anything but a success. The CDU's worst election result in a state parliament election to date came 75 years ago: in 1951 it won 9.0 percent in Bremen — the only time the party has ever remained in single digits in a state election.

With information from ARD election expert Jörg Schönenborn

Could the Berlin election make things somewhat better?

That is uncertain. In Berlin, the CDU stands to lose the office of Governing Mayor. Here, the Christian Democrats, led by top candidate Stefan Evers, are in a neck-and-neck race with the Left Party.

If the CDU comes out ahead, it could form a government with the SPD and Greens and once again provide the Governing Mayor. However, it is also possible that the Left Party crosses the finish line first and a red-red-green government comes together — even if significant policy differences between the Left Party and the SPD argue against it. The worst conceivable outcome for the CDU would therefore be: out of the Schwerin state parliament, out of the Red City Hall.

What scenarios are there in Berlin?

One thing is clear: should the worst come to pass in both elections, Merz's position will be under serious threat. There is massive unrest within the CDU. The Chancellor's attempts to smooth the waters have not failed entirely, but they have not been truly successful either. CDU state premiers did draft a letter stating they stand "behind the Chancellor" — but they refrained from mentioning Merz by name.

To replace Merz, the party would need to agree on a candidate. Names repeatedly mentioned include North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister-President Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria's Minister-President and CSU leader Söder. Both have recently made a point of declining. Hesse's state premier Boris Rhein (CDU) is being considered as an alternative option.

One thing is clear: any successor would face the same problems as Merz. The planned cuts and reforms are difficult to push through, and the risk of failure is high.

One name that also comes up repeatedly in the chancellorship debate is that of Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt. He is no longer being considered as a long-term chancellor, but he could step in on an interim basis until the CDU reorganises itself and reaches an agreement with CSU leader Söder on a successor.

How is Merz approaching the election?

The chancellor has made clear that he will fight for his position. "Giving up is not an option for me" was his central statement at the press conference following the CDU's electoral debacle in Saxony-Anhalt. On election night itself, Merz will attempt to rally the innermost party leadership behind him. To this end, he has summoned the presidium to a formal meeting at CDU headquarters in Berlin — unlike at the previous state elections.

The body includes all CDU minister-presidents by virtue of their office, as well as other state leaders. On Monday, the significantly larger executive board will convene, followed by the parliamentary group on Tuesday.