Hospitality bosses warn of empty cafes and kitchens under migration cuts

In short:

The hospitality industry has launched a campaign warning Australians of critical worker shortages if skilled migration is cut.

One Nation, the Coalition and the government have all pledged to slash migration numbers, but none have provided modelling of the economic impact.

What's next?

New research shows more than 70 per cent of businesses owners think workers born overseas are needed to fill roles.

The hospitality industry is the latest sector to push against sweeping cuts to migration, in a social media campaign depicting an Australia in which crucial jobs are left vacant due to a lack of migrant workers.

The AI-generated clip by the Australian Hotel Association (AHA) sets the scene for an Australia with a depleted workforce, depicting empty coffee counters, hotels where guests clean their own rooms, and elderly people saying goodbye to their carers.

AHA chief executive Stephen Ferguson said while businesses overwhelmingly wanted to hire "Australians first", there was already not enough people to fill vacancies.

"We have 7,000 chef and cook vacancies today. How many will that be in a year's time?" he said.

"All the major political parties have now issued migration policies, but none of them have included the economic impact on the cuts they are proposing".

More than 70 per cent of business owners agreed workers born overseas were important to filling critical roles, according to new research from the Federation of Ethnic Communities' Councils of Australia (FECCA).

Chief executive Prerana Mehta said the AHA ad highlighted the critical role migrant workers played in the economy.

"It is assisting individuals and members of the public to understand the impact that slashing migration would have, not just on the economy, but more broadly on their everyday lives," she said.

Growing chorus of voices against migration cuts

In August, big business and mining groups raised the alarm on weaknesses in the domestic workforce and warned Australia needed a steady flow of migrants to deliver on a number of projects already in the pipeline.

Earlier in the year, South Australian premier Peter Malinauskas admonished the major parties for engaging in a "political race to the bottom" with One Nation on migration policy.

One Nation is proposing net negative migration for three years before capping it below 130,000, while the Coalition would cut net migration to 100,000 for two years before gradually increasing it to 160,000.

Labor, meanwhile, is targeting 225,000 a year by 2028.

Labor:

The government is aiming for 245,000 net overseas migration (NOM) by June next year, and 225,000 by the middle of 2028. Those figures were forecast in the budget and are now a target.

In March, the NOM was 292,100, according to figures released last month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Coalition:

The Coalition has announced an annual NOM target of 100,000 for the first two years if it wins the election.

It will aim for 130,000 in the third year and 160,000 in the fourth year.

One Nation:

The minor party unveiled a policy to slash immigration by 750,000 over three years, pushing the NOM into negative territory.

After that, it would aim for a "ceiling" of 130,000, to be reviewed every year.

Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume said she had spoken with the AHA and was confident it understood the Coalition's position, saying Australia risked becoming a "guest worker economy" with an "imported underclass".

"That's not who we are, that is not Australian values," she said.

Immigration minister Tony Burke said the government was taking a "sensible approach to slowing immigration", with migrants critical to the workforce.

"Australia doesn't just benefit from migrant workers. We depend on them," he said.

"We need them to keep our hospitals and aged care homes open. We need them to build homes. We need them to work in hospitality and agriculture."

Independent Senator David Pocock said the migration debate was too focused on overall numbers rather than addressing workforce shortages, saying any reduction in migration should be accompanied by a focused approach to plugging skills gaps.

Critics online have said the ad reduces migrant workers to roles such as cleaners and baristas, overlooking those working in professions like engineering and healthcare, while depicting the people affected by service shortages as overwhelmingly white.

According to the Department of Home Affairs, more than half of GPs and nurses in Australia were born overseas.

Majority of business leaders see economic benefit of migrants

In September, FECCA virtually surveyed 500 business leaders across several sectors nationwide to gauge sentiment towards migration levels, multiculturalism and the economy.

The data, obtained by the ABC, found 87 per cent of those surveyed saw multiculturalism as an "economic strength", critical to growing trade, connecting with overseas networks and accessing skilled trades.

Two-thirds said multiculturalism made the economy "stronger".

Those surveyed reported concern about Australia becoming less welcoming to migrants, with 37 per cent fearing that would result in lost access to skilled workers.

Ms Mehta said business sentiments made it clear governments could not simply "stop migration" due to its impact on multiple sectors.

"I think our economy will be crippled … and small businesses, particularly, are going to be bearing the brunt of some of the policy inferences that are being made," she said.