Are Manchester United really at risk of a relegation scrap?

- Published

"We've got to keep moving forward and winning games, simple as that," said Michael Carrick in that considered way of his, after their 2-0 defeat by Chelsea on Saturday.

Carrick did get relegated once, with West Ham at the start of his playing career.

The Hammers were supposed to be too good to go down in 2002-03. Aside from Carrick, they had England goalkeeper David James in their squad. Joe Cole, Jermain Defoe and Trevor Sinclair all played more than 40 games in all competitions.

But down they went, finishing third bottom with 42 points. It remains the highest tally any side has been relegated with across a 38-game Premier League campaign.

To put that into context, Manchester United's current tally of seven points from nine games would not even get them 30 points if it was continued for the full season.

So, are United really destined for a relegation scrap?

You would have to be touching 60 to have any recollection of the last time United were relegated.

Legend has it that old boy Denis Law sent them down with an impudent back heel he didn't celebrate when he was at Manchester City. The reality is United were already doomed under then-boss Tommy Docherty.

United have not been in the relegation zone after nine games or more since November 1986, when they collected a single point in Sir Alex Ferguson's first two games in charge following Ron Atkinson's dismissal.

Their lowest position after at least nine games of a season since then was 17th in 1989-90. They are back there again right now, mainly thanks to the failings of others in results elsewhere on Saturday.

It is now nine games in all competitions since Carrick's side won, their worst run since 1988-89. Their single Premier League win of the season was when they came from behind to beat Ipswich at home in August.

Of course, United's supporters have very recent experience of seeing their team in the lower reaches of the table. They were 16th under Ruben Amorim after 37 games of the 2024-25 season. The caveat is they were 14 points clear of third-bottom Leicester and at no point in that tortuous campaign were they in danger of relegation.

One club that has been at real risk in recent years is Tottenham, who were third bottom and two points behind West Ham with four games of last season remaining.

So, it could happen, even if it remains unlikely a club that should post revenues in excess of £700m for the current campaign will finish in the bottom three.

"You can look at it like that, or you can look at how far you can move up the league quite quickly if you win football matches," was Carrick's response when asked if his players are equipped for the "mentality shift" required to deal with the present situation. "That's the way it's got to be approached."

Yet, as Carrick said, in order to save themselves, United need to win matches.

Their next game is against Aston Villa at Old Trafford on 8 November. Among the seven matches they have after that are trips to Liverpool, Newcastle and Arsenal.

As yet, there is no word about Carrick's future, although before Saturday's loss, the expectation was he would be in charge for Tuesday's Champions League encounter with Roma.

But these are unchartered waters and no-one can be absolutely sure what happens next. It is clear that many players need to improve their performance levels.

United will be without one of those players, Lisandro Martinez, who will miss the Villa game due to suspension after his red card at Chelsea, which was branded "inexplicable" by former World Cup final official Darren Cann on BBC Sport.

Martinez's longer-term future with the club is uncertain, but clearly he could not leave until January at the earliest.

His contract expires in the summer, and the Argentine's patchy injury record had already raised questions over whether it was worth triggering the clause that would commit United to another season.

What is financial implication of relegation?

After just nine games, it is a bit early to dig into the actual consequences of relegation for United, but the numbers might offer pause for thought.

In May, respected football finance blogger Paul Quinn, known as The Esk, calculated that Tottenham's "absolute revenue loss", external would be between £197m-£235m if they did go down.

As one of the league's highest recipients of TV income, United would not remotely be covered by the parachute payments available to relegated clubs.

It seems unlikely that many, if any, of their squad would have relegation clauses, and while United have huge commercial income, it is not known to what extent that would be affected by clauses triggered by relegation.

United also have £1.15bn worth of debt, made up of bonds that were renegotiated in June at a higher interest rate, a revolving credit facility and outstanding transfer fee payments.

The club are also about to launch a fan consultation before coming up with final plans for a new stadium, which are due to be submitted either in late 2027 or early 2028.

United fans once again chanted their opposition to a new stadium at Stamford Bridge during the Chelsea defeat.

It is a complicated picture, and even though it seems highly unlikely that the doomsday scenario will become reality, the mere fact that United are in the position they are underlines just how poor their form has been.