MOSCOW, October 13. /TASS/. Europe seeks to derail the Russia-US diesel deal; Moscow is ready to halt strikes on Ukraine on its election day; and the US and Iran can't seem to agree on de-escalation at sea. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Europe seeks to derail Russia-US diesel deal
The European Union will try to disrupt Russian fuel supplies to the United States and step up pressure on Moscow, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. Foreign ministers of EU member states have approved the bloc’s 22nd package of sanctions on Russia. However, the EU remains divided, with some countries planning to promote a pragmatic approach to relations with Russia.
The EU isn't happy about the Russia-US fuel agreement and will try to disrupt supplies, political scientist Denis Denisov said. One thing it could do is send its leaders on a series of visits to US President Donald Trump in a bid to persuade him to abandon the deal, the way they did following the Russia-US talks in Alaska. Besides, Europe has high hopes for the Democratic Party’s potential victory in the upcoming US midterm congressional elections.
Still, the EU is divided over how to approach Russia as some member states call for dialogue with Moscow. Bulgaria and Slovakia seek to maintain Russian energy supplies, which the EU intends to stop as early as next year, St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeryomina stressed. However, as Brussels will work to derail the Russia-US deal, it won’t allow EU members to reach similar agreements with Moscow, the political scientist pointed out.
Meanwhile, the Russia-US diesel deal has caused a stir not only in Europe and Ukraine but also in the US Congress, Vedomosti notes. A bipartisan group of seven senators has called on Trump to drop Russian diesel imports.
If Democrats win the midterm elections, the deal could be scrapped through a bill fully banning the import of Russian petroleum products, provided it is backed by some Republicans, said Vadim Kozlov, head of the Internal Policy Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. "A move to reverse course on the deal is unlikely to gain support from enough lawmakers at this point because Trump is sure to portray it as Congress obstructing efforts to lower US diesel prices," the expert concluded.
Russia is not prepared to accept the 60-day ceasefire proposed by Vladimir Zelensky, who has claimed that this would allow presidential elections to be held in Ukraine. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that what he is willing to do is halt strikes on Ukraine on the day of the vote, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. In the meantime, Moscow remains open to talks, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia.
Some are clamoring for elections to be held in Ukraine, said Igor Markov, a former member of the country’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. And the reasons go beyond simply changing the government. According to Markov, some of the country’s elite already expect the domestic political struggle to intensify once hostilities are over. That's when people will be blamed for decisions made over the past several years, including major corruption crimes, he explained.
Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Contemporary State Development, believes that elections in Ukraine could facilitate negotiations on resolving the crisis.
Still, settlement efforts are being hampered by the position taken by the majority of European Union countries, which continue to supply Kiev with weapons and actually encourage it to prolong the conflict. By contrast, the United States under Donald Trump is seeking to find a diplomatic way out of the crisis, even though Washington has not completely halted its support for Kiev.
A change of president in Kiev would not guarantee a shift in Ukraine’s approach to the conflict. Whoever succeeds Zelensky would have to take Brussels’ position into account, while the European Union appears to believe that continued confrontation serves its interests. Notably, European leaders choose to ignore Moscow’s direct statements that Russia has neither plans nor reasons to engage in an armed conflict with the EU. Within this framework, Ukraine’s leader remains merely a variable in someone else’s strategic equation.
A brief lull in strikes in the Persian Gulf was once again disrupted by attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. With talks stalled, the United States and Iran could engage in another round of active hostilities after the US midterm elections, Vedomosti writes.
Alexey Yurk, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, doubts that the election outcome will significantly affect the US president’s position. "Congressional resolutions calling for an end to military operations are advisory in nature and can in no way stop the White House," the expert said.
After the elections, Trump will no longer be so worried about how the American public views his foreign policy actions in the Middle East, Ilya Vaskin, junior researcher at the Higher School of Economics’ Center for the Study of the Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia, pointed out. On the other hand, the expert did not rule out the possibility that the Democrats could take control of Congress following the vote, making it much harder for the White House to conduct combat operations.
In terms of prospects for an agreement, Washington and Tehran and pretty far apart in their positions on most issues, including the status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions on Iran, Yurk noted. The sides have also lost all trust in each other, making it all but impossible for either party to concede anything, as the United States has repeatedly launched military operations against Iran in the midst of negotiations, the political scientist added.
In the event of an escalation, hostilities are likely to enter a more destructive phase, Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Center for Strategies and Technologies, warned. The US military could launch massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, while Tehran could retaliate by targeting oil and gas facilities and other critical economic sectors of US regional allies, the analyst said.
Media: Houthi strikes expose weaknesses in Saudi air defenses
Saudi Arabia has found itself in a difficult position amid its conflict with the Houthis. A coalition led by Riyadh previously announced a large-scale military operation against the movement, but Saudi Arabia has so far limited its involvement to targeted airstrikes, while it is Yemeni government forces that have engaged in combat, Izvestia notes.
Middle East expert Kirill Semyonov believes that Saudi Arabia has no other option but to launch a ground operation because the Houthis are pursuing a policy of maximum pressure on Riyadh.
The Ansar Allah Houthi movement openly describes itself as Tehran’s main ally in the fight against the United States and Israel. In order to end the conflict, Riyadh will have to enter direct talks with Iran on dividing spheres of influence in the region, Danila Krylov, a researcher with the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized.
Successful Houthi attacks on airports have prompted media reports highlighting the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s air defenses. In 2017, Riyadh signed a memorandum on purchasing Russia’s S-400 air defense systems but later abandoned the plan under pressure from the United States. Saudi Arabia eventually yielded to Washington’s demands and signed a separate contract to buy US-made THAAD missile defense systems.
Now, the US has in fact left its once-strategic ally to its own devices, as Americans are unable to supply Riyadh with enough interceptors, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes. That said, Saudi Arabia has turned to France, Britain, Egypt and Pakistan for additional weapons. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining a dangerous route and US President Donald Trump with his hands full on the eve of the November midterm elections, Saudi Arabia is hastily seeking to form a regional coalition willing to fight the Houthis in Yemen without Washington’s support. However, Riyadh will be the one to bear the costs of the war, which could turn out to be the fatal straw breaking the back of the Saudi economy, which is already hemorrhaging money amid the US-Iran conflict.
Russian and foreign analysts have lowered their forecasts for Russian grain exports. Disruptions to shipments through Black Sea ports, the main channel for agricultural exports, is being cited as the main reason, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.
Exporters are exploring alternative shipping options though ports in the Far East. Chinese ports could become transit hubs for supplies to various countries, said Ksenia Bolomatova, executive director of the Russian Grain Association. The Baltic Sea route serves traditional destinations of Russian grain exports such as the Middle East, Turkey and North Africa. However, shipping grain to Southeast Asian countries via this route is more difficult, so developing Far Eastern terminals is necessary, the expert stressed.
The Russian Grain Association believes that other exporters will not be able to fully compensate for the shortfall in Russian grain supplies. "Moreover, customers will have to pay more for what they receive, as we have already seen a price rise of 30%," Bolomatova warned.
Amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russian grain exports along traditional routes remain largely constrained, Finam analyst Alexander Potavin agrees. "The main grain export route used to run through Russia’s southern ports on the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Now, it has been disrupted. There are some alternatives but those routes are longer and more expensive, nor can they ensure the same volumes of supplies at this point. Agricultural products can be shipped via Baltic ports, including Ust Luga, which is well suited for exports to Turkey, North Africa and the Middle East, but it now takes much longer to deliver grain from southern Russia to these ports, and it also costs more," the expert added.
"Grain exports through the Far East are more convenient for Asian customers, but they require additional rail and port infrastructure. As a result, it turns out that disruptions affecting Azov and Black Sea ports, as well as risks associated with shipments across the Black Sea, are complicating Russian grain exports this year," Potavin concluded.
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