Italian families expecting an inheritance show consumption levels 7% higher than households with similar characteristics but without the same expectation, and their savings are approximately 17% lower, consistent with the idea that an anticipated increase in future wealth reduces the need to accumulate resources in the present.
This is the finding of a study by the Bank of Italy published in the Questioni di Economia e Finanza series, according to which inheritance expectations influence decisions on consumption, saving, work, investment and credit. The analysis was carried out by David Loschiavo, Mirko Moscatelli, Eleonora Porreca and Francesca Zanichelli using data from the Survey on Italian Household Budgets.
According to the study, the effect concerns both current and durable consumption. Spending on non-durable goods is around 6% higher, while the likelihood of purchasing durable goods also increases. Furthermore, in households with at least one member between the ages of 16 and 30, there is a greater probability that young people will continue their studies or take part in training programmes. The amount of financial investments held grows by approximately 20% compared to other families, with a preference also for instruments with a higher risk-return profile. On the debt front, those who expect an inheritance make more frequent use of consumer credit.
While noting that the findings identify statistical correlations rather than causal relationships, the study concludes that expectations of receiving intergenerational transfers influence economic choices well before they actually materialise and could contribute to widening inequalities, as they are more prevalent among families that are already economically better off.
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