Leadership spill as Carroll vies to replace Allan as Victorian Labor leader

In short:

Premier Jacinta Allan will face a leadership spill at a meeting of Victoria's Labor MPs in Melbourne this morning.

On Monday, Deputy Premier Ben Carroll declared his intention to run after a cross-factional delegation of ministers and MPs informed Ms Allan she had lost the support of caucus.

What's next?

Victoria will go to the polls at the November state election.

Premier Jacinta Allan will face a leadership challenge at a meeting of Labor MPs this morning.

Her deputy Ben Carroll yesterday declared his intention to run after a cross-factional delegation of ministers and MPs informed Ms Allan she had lost the support of caucus.

Ms Allan has vowed to fight on, declaring she would contest a leadership ballot even if she lost a spill motion at Tuesday's meeting.

"I also wish to formally notify you of my intention to be a candidate for the leadership of the state parliamentary Labor Party, in the event that an election is required," Ms Allan wrote to Victorian Labor secretary Steve Staikos.

Ms Allan has suffered in consecutive polls and has been under intense pressure over alleged corruption in the government's program of transport infrastructure projects. While she has refused to call a royal commission, a growing number of MPs believe some form of inquiry is needed to subdue public backlash.

There is a view among Labor sources that changing leaders would also require a shift in focus.

Labor has become increasingly pessimistic about its chances at the November 28 election, prompting MPs to lobby Mr Carroll for a challenge.

"It is clear that the premier has lost the majority of our caucus," Mr Carroll said in a statement yesterday morning.

"As such, I have since visited the premier to inform her that I will be nominating for the leadership of the Labor Party.

"This decision is not easy, but the stakes at the upcoming election are simply too high."

The deputy premier had previously insisted he would stand by Ms Allan, referencing his daughter in a press conference that temporarily paused leadership rumblings.

"I've got a young daughter at home, and I couldn't be more proud to make sure she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right," Mr Carroll said in June.

Some MPs said Major Events Minister Steve Dimopoulos had also sounded out support for becoming leader in the event of a spill.

In the event that Ms Allan does not step aside, a spill motion is expected to be moved at Tuesday's caucus meeting in parliament at 10am.

While a leader typically will not contest a spill if it gets up convincingly, Ms Allan has vowed to throw her hat in the ring.

That would force the party to put the ballot out to the entire membership over four weeks. In the meantime, Labor MPs would elect an interim leader, who cannot be a candidate in the ballot.

Given Labor is in government, with a state election just four months away, this is widely viewed as a nightmare scenario.

Those pushing for change said the premier should resign or face being blown out of office.

One of Ms Allan's backers described the move against her as a game of Russian roulette, insisting support for a coup remains untested.

However, MPs broadly agreed that caucus had lost confidence in the premier and believed a spill motion would succeed if moved.

MPs have also received calls in an attempt to shore up an emphatic result against Ms Allan to show her she must step aside.

Ministers Anthony Carbines, Gabrielle Williams, Colin Brooks, Ingrid Stitt and Luba Grigorovitch personally informed Ms Allan she no longer had majority support on Monday, along with backbenchers Mat Hilakari and Ella George.

Ms Allan demanded the ministers resign from cabinet, but they refused.

Cabinet met later on Monday morning, a meeting which those attending described as "awkward", and ministers approved $170 million for police to establish an organised crime command.

The premier cancelled a planned press conference announcing the command on Monday afternoon.

Ms Allan became premier in September 2023, when her predecessor Daniel Andrews resigned.

Monash University emeritus professor of politics Paul Strangio said if Ms Allan was toppled, it would be the first time Victorian Labor had axed a premier in its modern history.

"The only two leadership replacements by Victorian Labor happened in opposition; Steve Bracks challenging John Brumby before the 1999 election and before that, John Cain replacing Frank Wilkes in 1981," Dr Strangio told the ABC.

"So it's highly unusual in Victorian Labor's history.

"27 years have passed since the last example, and that was in opposition. Added to that is the timing: only four months out from the state election."

Dr Strangio said the 2026 Victorian election was shaping up as a historically unusual three-horse race, with Labor, the Coalition and One Nation polling neck and neck.

"There is clearly a visceral dislike of the Labor government and in normal circumstances, that would result in a handsome victory for the coalition," he said.

"But the lead-up to this election, there's now likely three Labor leaders this term, three Coalition leaders and then, One Nation, which still doesn't have a state leader, and the election is in November."

Former Victorian premier Ted Baillieu, who was rolled as Coalition leader in 2013, told 774 ABC Melbourne that while he did not want to offer Ms Allan advice, he could reflect on the parallels in his own career.

"I made the decision [in 2013], well, I'll get out of the way and let somebody else manage this situation so they can no longer use me as a battering ram," Mr Baillieu said.

"The singular piece of advice I'd give her is put Victoria first. When you sit in the premier's chair … You have to put Victoria first. For me, it was a decision that was rational, sensible. I don't regret it."