Europe cannot afford to miss the artificial intelligence revolution after having already missed the digital one. This is the warning issued by EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis at the informal Ecofin meeting in Dublin, where Finance Ministers discussed the impact of AI on the economy alongside IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. The stakes are high: according to the International Monetary Fund, around 60% of workers in advanced European economies are employed in professions highly exposed to AI. Over five years, however, cumulative productivity gains for Europe — and for Italy too, according to the Fund — could average around 1%. Starting points, nonetheless, vary considerably. Italy is currently at the back of the European pack in terms of AI readiness, while it stands out at the top of a particular fiscal ranking: that of tax incentives for investments in hardware that can replace labour.
"It is important that the European Union does not now miss the artificial intelligence revolution," which can have "even more transformative" effects on productivity and income distribution, Dombrovskis stressed. "If we look at the previous revolution in information and communication technologies — essentially the Internet revolution — it is fair to say that Europe missed that opportunity." "To put it simply, the United States created the digital giants; we did not," the Commissioner added. Over the past two decades, he recalled, the EU has fallen behind the United States in productivity growth, but the gap is concentrated mainly in ICT: in traditional sectors of the economy, including manufacturing, Europe remains "more or less on a par." Brussels is now counting on the AI Continent Action Plan and the Apply AI strategy to accelerate the development and use of artificial intelligence across different sectors of the economy. The IMF's estimates, however, also show how profound the transformation of the labour market could be.
Around 60% of workers in advanced European economies are employed in professions highly exposed to artificial intelligence, compared with 45% in emerging Europe and 40% globally. Exposure, however, does not automatically mean replacement. According to the Fund, approximately half of the most affected jobs involve professions in which AI can work alongside the worker and boost their productivity, such as professionals, judges and managers. In the other half, where complementarity is lower and replaceability higher, the risk of job loss increases, particularly for certain administrative roles and in retail trade. The overall net effect on employment, however, remains uncertain.
As for Italy, looking at the Fund's tables, Italy ranks 21st — that is, in the lower positions — in the European ranking on "AI preparedness," an index that combines digital infrastructure, innovation and economic integration, human capital, public policies, regulation and ethics.
The report also highlights another Italian peculiarity: Italy emerges as the country with the greatest tax advantage for IT hardware among the ten economies featured by the Fund.
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