Party standings in Italian voters' preferences would not change much if elections were held now, but interesting signals can be detected regarding coalitions. In particular, it is the centre-right coalition that could be most affected by the potential inclusion of Futuro Nazionale — potentially winning the elections overall, but losing votes in the process. This is what emerges from the Ipsos Doxa poll by Nando Pagnoncelli conducted for Corriere della Sera.
In detail, over the past month Fratelli d'Italia remains first with 26.5% of support, though recording a slight further contraction (now 0.5%, following the 0.6% drop a month ago). The Lega continues to decline, losing 0.5% and settling at 5.1%, overtaken by Forza Italia which holds at 8.3%, and, on the other side, by the party of its former deputy secretary, Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale, which now leads the Carroccio by 2 percentage points and is estimated at 7.1% (+1.1% compared to the previous month). Maurizio Lupi's Noi Moderati stands at 0.9%, up from 0.8%.
In the centre-left, the situation is stable: the PD does not move from 20.1% (the same figure for two months, while the last high peak of 22.3% dates back to late April), M5S is at 14.5% (a month ago it was at 14.3%), and AVS at 6.3% (compared to 6.2% in June). Both Azione, at 3.1%, and Italia Viva, at 2.3%, are slightly up, while +Europa records a drop of 0.5%, stopping at 1.4%. Under a proportional electoral scenario, the centre-right would reach 47.9% by adding the figures of the four parties and opening the door to the Futuro Nazionale supporters, while without the former general it would total 40.8%. The progressive front (PD, M5S, AVS, IV and Più Europa, therefore excluding Azione) would reach 44.6%, thus defeating its opponents — but only if Vannacci were to run alone, and not the other way around.
The picture changes when voters are asked in the poll about the currently existing 'teams' and are requested to confirm the vote expressed in the proportional scenario. A centre-right broadened to include FNV would lose more than two points, dropping from 47.9% in the proportional scenario to 45.4% in the coalition scenario. The reading given in the poll is that in that case both Forza Italia voters and Vannacci supporters would have a negative impact. On the other side, the progressive coalition could instead rise to 45%, strengthened most likely by the anti-Vannacci push.
The poll was conducted between 20 and 23 July through 1,000 interviews from 3,949 contacts, using the CATI, CAMI and CAWI methods.
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