Party standings in Italians' voting intentions would not change much if elections were held now, but interesting signals can be detected at the coalition level. In particular, it is the centre-right coalition that could be most affected by Futuro Nazionale joining it — potentially winning the elections overall, but losing votes in the process. This is what emerges from the Ipsos Doxa poll by Nando Pagnoncelli, conducted for Corriere della Sera.

In detail, over the past month Fratelli d'Italia remains first with 26.5% support, though suffering a slight further contraction (now 0.5%, following a 0.6% drop a month ago). The Lega's decline continues, losing 0.5% and settling at 5.1%, overtaken by Forza Italia which holds at 8.3%, and, on the other side, by the party of its former deputy secretary — Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale — which now leads the Carroccio by 2 percentage points and is estimated at 7.1% (+1.1% compared to the previous month). Maurizio Lupi's Noi Moderati stands at 0.9%, up from 0.8%.

On the centre-left, the situation is stable: the PD remains at 20.1% (unchanged for two months, while its last peak of 22.3% dates back to late April), M5S is at 14.5% (compared to 14.3% a month ago), and AVS at 6.3% (versus 6.2% in June). Both Azione, at 3.1%, and Italia Viva, at 2.3%, are slightly up, while +Europa registers a 0.5% drop, stopping at 1.4%. Under a proportional electoral scenario, the centre-right would reach 47.9% by combining the four parties' results and opening the door to the Futuro Nazionale supporters, while without the former general it would total 40.8%. The progressive front (PD, M5S, AVS, IV and Più Europa, therefore excluding Azione) would reach 44.6%, thus beating its opponents — but only if Vannacci were to run alone, and not the other way around.

The picture changes when voters are asked in the poll about the currently existing 'teams' and invited to confirm the vote expressed in the proportional section. A centre-right expanded to include FNV would lose more than two points, dropping from 47.9% in the proportional scenario to 45.4% in the coalition scenario. The reading offered by the poll is that in such a case both Forza Italia voters and Vannacci supporters would have a negative impact. On the other side, the progressive coalition could instead rise to 45%, likely boosted by an anti-Vannacci momentum.

The poll was conducted between 20 and 23 July through 1,000 interviews from 3,949 contacts, using the CATI, CAMI and CAWI methods.

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