MOSCOW, September 15. /TASS/. The EU may transfer frozen Russian assets out of Belgium as Ukraine funding pressures increase; UK regional leaders are challenging London’s control over independence votes; and Ukraine’s latest corruption scandal is further weakening Western confidence in Kiev. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
The European Union is considering transferring frozen Russian assets out of Belgium and into EU structures, Izvestia has learned. Such a scenario would make it easier to share responsibility among the bloc’s member states but would also create new risks. The frozen funds could be transferred to the European Investment Bank or one of the EU’s special funds, although experts believe this would be extremely difficult to achieve. Difficulties with continuing to finance Ukraine are forcing European countries to look for ways to confiscate Russian funds, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. EU attempts to implement new initiatives risk undermining the bloc’s investment appeal, causing further losses and even leading to the seizure of its own assets.
"It appears that the European Union, in its pro-Ukraine fervor, has objectively overestimated its capabilities and reached its limit when it comes to meeting the ever-growing needs of the Kiev regime. Further financing of Ukraine is becoming an excessive burden for EU member states, which can no longer increase lending through national budgets and borrowing on capital markets," Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department of European Affairs, told Izvestia.
Belgium, where the lion’s share of Russian assets - around 180 bln euros - is held, opposes their transfer. As a result, the European Union has so far been using only the interest generated by these reserves for Ukraine’s needs. If the assets are transferred to a European financial institution, the entire European Union would then have to handle any resulting lawsuits, the newspaper writes.
"Belgium is standing its ground, so the most likely scenario is now the transfer of Russia’s frozen assets from Belgian jurisdiction to EU jurisdiction," a European source told Izvestia.
Moving Russia’s frozen assets to another jurisdiction would, in effect, nullify guarantees that another country’s sovereign funds would be protected in Belgium, senior research fellow at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University of the Russian Foreign Ministry Egor Sergeyev emphasized. In his view, Belgium would also find such a scenario unacceptable. However, the issue of using Russian assets will be discussed with increasing frequency, and some form of legal mechanism may ultimately be found, the expert said.
Scottish First Minister John Swinney, Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth, and Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill signed a joint memorandum of understanding in the Welsh capital, Cardiff. The document calls on the central government in London to give the autonomous regions the right to independently decide whether to hold referendums on independence. Swinney described the event as a turning point in the United Kingdom’s constitutional journey. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti see the initiative primarily as an attempt by regional nationalists to win greater concessions from London rather than an imminent push for independence.
The declaration is a show of strength by local nationalists aimed at demonstrating their leverage to London and extracting more concessions in various areas, political analyst Malek Dudakov told the newspaper. According to him, current British legislation still reliably protects London’s ability to maintain control over the situation. In addition, the Labour government will seek to limit the possibility of such referendums as much as possible. Nevertheless, independence supporters in these regions will try to use the issue to blame London for any problems they face and boost their own power and influence.
The prospects for independence supporters are limited in no small part by the lack of genuine willingness among local populations, with the exception of Scotland, to back the idea, Dudakov said.
From the standpoint of legal procedures, it will be very difficult for the regions to obtain referendums, with London ultimately determining the outcome, Sergey Shein, leading research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, said.
Moreover, despite the relatively high level of support in Scotland for leaving the United Kingdom, Scottish independence advocates will find it difficult to persuade the public to make a final choice, as London is actively highlighting the difficulties, including financial ones, that Scots would face. "Thus, the nationalists’ main objective at present is not independence but winning greater concessions in local governance. Their main problem, however, remains that while they share a common slogan, their goals are different," Shein concluded.
Vladimir Zelensky is portraying a fight against corruption in an effort to preserve financial and military support from Western partners, former members of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada interviewed by Izvestia said. He previously dismissed Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko from office after the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) accused him of protecting fraudulent networks. Kravchenko left for France after accusing the leadership of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies of falsifying documents. Infighting within the Ukrainian elite will undermine confidence in Kiev over whether continued funding is justified, the newspaper writes.
The European Commission said it was aware of developments but declined to comment directly. At the same time, a Commission representative emphasized that the success of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU directly hinges on anti-corruption measures.
The new scandal will further weaken confidence both in the authorities in Kiev and in Ukraine itself when it comes to whether continued funding is justified, former Verkhovna Rada member Spiridon Kilinkarov told Izvestia. Current European leaders will continue their support, however. Opposition parties in Germany and France will increase their criticism because voters are tired of financing Ukraine, former Ukrainian lawmaker Vladimir Oleynik told Izvestia.
The former Rada members emphasized that Zelensky is being forced to simulate a tough crackdown on corruption in order to preserve financial and military support from Western partners, to whom he is unable to account for enormous gaps in the treasury. Zelensky previously confirmed a $27 bln deficit in the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ budget and demanded that Europe immediately provide part of the EU loan for Kiev.
Western countries are increasingly voicing concerns about corruption in Ukraine and questioning the need for arms supplies, Izvestia noted. US President Donald Trump directly referred to massive corruption in Ukraine late last year. Since his administration took office, Washington has reduced direct military assistance to a minimum. The United States now provides weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces through its European allies.
The BRICS countries – the group comprises 10 countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Indonesia – account for roughly 49% of global GDP growth, Vladimir Putin said at a BRICS+ meeting held as part of the summit in New Delhi. Over the past five years, the group’s countries have accounted for more than 40% of global GDP, while the G7 countries have contributed 29%, the head of state said. The president also noted that the group’s members account for almost a quarter of global exports, while their combined domestic trade has grown to $1.2 trillion. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti say BRICS is acquiring global economic weight thanks to faster-growing emerging economies, expansion, vast resources, large populations, and growing domestic markets.
The growing share of BRICS is primarily due to the fact that the largest economies of the Global South are, on average, expanding faster than developed countries, Candidate of Political Sciences and associate professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Pavel Sevostyanov told the newspaper.
Indonesia is also expected to make a notable contribution to global GDP, with its economy projected to grow by 5%, senior research fellow at the Center for International Institutions Research at the Presidential Academy Alexander Ignatov noted.
The center of gravity of the global economy is now steadily shifting toward Asia and other emerging markets, Sevostyanov said. According to him, the trend is being further driven by the expansion of BRICS, as "the group is being joined by major economies with growing domestic demand, substantial resource capabilities, and demographic potential." Thus, BRICS expansion is increasing not only its aggregate GDP, but also its resource base, population, domestic market, and prospects for intra-group trade, associate professor at the School of Asian Studies at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University Olga Kharina told Vedomosti.
BRICS already unites the largest producers of energy resources and food, major industrial production centers, and large markets for consumer goods and services, Ignatov said. If the group’s member states succeed in pooling all these resources, their collective weight could translate into genuine economic leverage, Sevostyanov agreed. This would allow them to affect trade flows, investment, and the shaping of international economic rules.
The European gas market is once again approaching the price peaks seen in late 2022, with gas prices reaching $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters. There is currently little reason to expect prices to fall this coming winter: the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while competition with Asia for available LNG cargoes is only growing. Although inventories in underground storage facilities are at historic lows, this will not prevent Europe from getting through the heating season, but the continent will be vulnerable to further supply disruptions and a sharp cold snap, Kommersant writes.
The market is factoring in an additional risk premium into gas prices amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and is also concerned about low underground gas inventories, particularly in Germany, the EU’s largest gas consumer, which has so far filled its storage facilities to only 55.6%.
EU forward gas prices are also being driven higher by maintenance work scheduled through the end of September at gas production facilities in Norway, which has become the continent’s main supplier of pipeline gas.
The prolonged disruption of LNG supplies from Persian Gulf countries throughout the summer has kept natural gas prices elevated. As a result, EU gas storage facilities were only 68% full as of September 11, 16.3 percentage points below the level recorded over the previous five years.
"A level of around $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters now looks like a realistic benchmark for the start of the heating season that the market is anticipating. However, cold weather, continued restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, or new supply disruptions could trigger significant short-term surges," Ivan Timonin from Implementa told Kommersant.
According to estimates by Rystad Energy and Goldman Sachs, there is a risk that winter prices could climb to 100 euros per MWh, or around $1,220 per 1,000 cubic meters. If supply restrictions persist, weather will become an important factor. Cold temperatures could increase volatility during the winter as high demand for gas for space heating and power generation puts additional pressure on the market.
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