What trap? US-China relations show conflict is far from inevitable
The Thucydides Trap that has dominated debate for a decade is a poor fit for reality. Beijing and Washington are both showing they can share the stage without drifting into war
The term is widely used in commentaries on US-China relations. Frictions get written off as “inevitable” regardless of what actually happened. But a closer look at how the two governments behave, not just how pundits describe them, tells a different story. Both sides are, for now, choosing the diplomatic equivalent of indicating before they change lanes.
Any analysis about power transition has to start with power itself, so here is where the two superpowers stand at the moment. By market exchange rates, the US economy was worth about US$30.6 trillion in 2025 against China’s US$19.4 trillion, putting China’s economy at roughly 63 per cent of the size of the US.
